Multipolar Dreams in Bishkek: Can SCO Leaders Deliver on Their Vision?

The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Kyrgyzstan’s capital, Bishkek, marks 25 years of the grouping’s existence. The annual meeting brings together leaders from China, Russia, India, and other member states to promote a vision of a multipolar world and strengthen mutual trade ties amidst global chaos triggered by US unilateral policies.

The summit takes place against a tumultuous backdrop: the aftermath of the US-Israel war on Iran and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict continue to shape the global landscape. As these conflicts erode the rules-based order, SCO leaders aim to present themselves as champions of peaceful resolution. However, analysts warn that their efforts may be limited to rhetoric rather than concrete proposals.

China’s drive for greater global influence and deeper engagement with countries in the Global South makes the SCO summit a crucial platform for Beijing to showcase its vision. The ongoing India-China border talks and the scheduled Modi-Putin bilateral meeting will test the extent of recent thaw between New Delhi and Beijing.

The SCO’s expansion over the years has raised questions about its distinctiveness from other Global South organisations like the BRICS. While the SCO initially focused on regional security, its mandate now encompasses trade and other concerns, making it challenging to understand what sets it apart. Analysts see the SCO as a counterbalance to the US-led Asia Pacific alliance aimed at countering China’s rise.

India’s participation in both the SCO and the BRICS reflects the complexity of New Delhi’s position in the evolving global order. By participating in the SCO, India demonstrates its desire for agency and strategic room for manoeuvre in a more volatile geopolitical landscape dominated by China and the US. The SCO is better understood as a forum where countries with diverse interests can demonstrate their alternatives to American power.

This year’s summit has broader significance beyond the SCO itself. As a symbol of Global South cooperation on trade and security issues, the gathering represents a challenge to the US-led world order. With global energy and financial markets still reeling from recent conflicts, the SCO leaders’ emphasis on promoting a multipolar world and fostering mutually beneficial international cooperation takes on added importance.

As the summit commences in Bishkek, observers will be watching for any signs of progress towards concrete proposals for conflict resolution. Will China’s vision of a multipolar world gain traction, or will it remain a rhetorical exercise? Can the SCO leaders deliver on their promises to strengthen mutual trade ties and promote Global South cooperation?

The success of this gathering will depend not only on the SCO leaders’ ability to deliver but also on their willingness to confront the hard realities of a multipolar world and its challenges. The true test of the SCO’s significance lies in its ability to offer genuine alternatives to American power, rather than simply serving as a counterbalance to US influence.

The world will be closely watching for signs of progress from Bishkek, but one thing is certain: the SCO summit marks a critical juncture in the evolving global order.