Trump Loses the Other Strait

The recent Houthi breakthrough in Yemen has dealt a significant blow to Donald Trump’s efforts to assert American influence in the region. This development speaks to deeper structural issues that have long plagued Washington’s approach to the Middle East.

One of the most striking aspects of the Houthi victory is its demonstration of the limitations of air power alone. Despite a seven-week war against the group last year, the Trump administration failed to dislodge them or significantly diminish their ability to wage war. This outcome serves as a stark reminder that bombs and missiles are merely a pale substitute for boots on the ground.

The Gulf states’ failure to coordinate their efforts against the Houthis has been catastrophic, echoing Trump’s own inability to devise a coherent strategy against Iran. The contrast between the Houthis’ disciplined approach and the disunity and incompetence of their opponents is striking. While the Houthi forces have sacrificed hundreds or thousands of fighters in pursuit of their goals, the various Yemeni factions continue to squabble among themselves even as their enemies are at the gates.

The Mecca Alliance, formed last August by Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey, has already shown signs of strain under pressure. Islamabad and Ankara have failed to live up to their commitments to support Riyadh in its conflict with the Houthis, despite recent Houthi strikes on targets in southern Saudi Arabia.

The Houthi advance is not just bad news for the US; it’s also a major blow to Saudi Arabia. The kingdom has long struggled to contain the Houthi threat on its border and now finds itself facing a resurgent enemy that has inherited significant military hardware from the official Yemeni government. Farea Al-Muslimi, a Yemen specialist at Chatham House, notes that “there was no coordination between commanders, between the intelligence and the drones, between the coast guard and the army—nothing.”

The Houthi victories have put into doubt the value of the Mecca Alliance and pose a more fundamental challenge to US policy in the region. The Trump administration’s reliance on air power and covert operations has failed to yield significant results against groups like the Houthis, who are driven by a deep ideological bond with their Iranian patrons.

As long as the Houthi forces can continue to sink an occasional oil tanker, they will hold a whip hand over their Saudi neighbors and indeed over the rest of the world. The question now is whether the Trump administration will finally recognize the need for a more nuanced and coordinated approach to the region, one that acknowledges the limitations of air power and the importance of working with local allies on the ground.

The Houthi advance has created a new reality on the ground in Yemen, one that will take years to undo. Michael Knights, head of research at Horizon Engage, notes that “the Houthis have clearly benefited from the Gulf’s disunity, and they will continue to exploit this weakness until their enemies are able to put aside their differences and work together.”