The Middle Power Mirage

The Philippines’ naval ambitions have been making waves in Southeast Asia, but claims of being a “middle power” are largely aspirational rather than reflective of current reality. Rear Admiral Joe Anthony C. Orbe’s statement to reporters earlier this month sparked a mix of reactions from regional analysts and policymakers.

Orbe pointed to the Philippine navy’s modernization efforts as evidence of its middle-power status, citing ship count and relative capabilities compared to neighboring countries. However, this simplistic metric overlooks the complex reality of naval power. A “middle power” implies not just parity with regional neighbors but also the ability to project influence beyond one’s borders.

The fact that regional partners are admiring Manila’s modernization efforts is telling. While this might be seen as a compliment, it highlights the limited scope of the Philippines’ naval ambitions. The praise comes from a place of envy rather than admiration for the country’s actual contributions to regional security.

Hunter Marston, an Australian geopolitical analyst, described Orbe’s description as “a fair, if somewhat aspirational, characterisation” of the Philippine navy’s capabilities. This measured assessment underscores the issue at hand: Manila’s claims are more a reflection of its aspirations than current reality.

The Philippines’ middle-power aspirations raise questions about regional dynamics and the country’s own security posture. Does proclaiming oneself a “middle power” create an expectation among neighbors and allies that may be difficult to meet? Or does it provide a convenient excuse for avoiding deeper engagement with pressing regional issues?

Japan’s own experience in the early 20th century serves as a cautionary tale. Tokyo’s efforts to assert itself as a major naval power ultimately led to catastrophic consequences. The Philippines would do well to remember this history and not confuse ambition with actual capabilities.

As Manila continues to navigate its place within Southeast Asia, it would be wise to set aside grandiose claims and focus on building genuine relationships with regional partners. Rather than trying to emulate the capabilities of larger navies, the Philippines should focus on developing a navy that can effectively support its own unique security needs and contribute meaningfully to regional initiatives.

Ultimately, the Philippine navy’s true worth will be judged not by its claims or ship count but by its ability to deliver in times of need. Until then, the label “middle power” remains more aspirational than actual – a reminder that ambition is one thing, but results are what truly matter.