UK's Starmer Faces Bleak Prospects for Trade Deals with China, Analysts Warn
Keir Starmer's highly anticipated visit to China this week has been touted as an effort to revive diplomatic relations and secure new trade deals. However, experts warn that the UK prime minister's chances of landing meaningful agreements are slim.
Eight years after Theresa May's ill-fated "ambitious" post-Brexit deal with China was shelved, Starmer is set to embark on a trip that will focus on joint trade and investment efforts. The visit comes as China continues to assert its dominance in global trade, with the country boasting a record trillion-dollar global trade surplus in 2025.
Despite Starmer's assurances that China presents significant opportunities for British businesses, analysts believe the UK is unlikely to reap substantial economic benefits from its dealings with Beijing. "The bar for a successful Starmer trip is very low," says Sam Goodman, senior policy director at the China Strategic Risks Institute. "It could amount to a bunch of memoranda of understanding on financial services and maybe a promise of a greenfield investment in the car industry."
Goodman's assessment is echoed by Andrew Small, a former European Commission adviser who now works for the European Council on Foreign Relations. "China is unlikely to deliver the economic boost Labour wants because margins have perished in an overheated economy," he notes.
Small also warns that China's trade policies are becoming increasingly complex and unpredictable. The country has shown a willingness to use trade as a tool of foreign policy, imposing import bans and anti-competition investigations on foreign companies. "Foreign businesses are seen as fair game and a useful pressure point for China in its relationship with foreign countries," he says.
One notable example of this is China's recent export ban on Nexperia chips, which nearly brought car production to a halt globally. Goodman notes that such tactics demonstrate the double-edged nature of doing business with China.
As Starmer prepares to meet with Chinese leaders and promote British trade interests, analysts are cautioning that the UK must be aware of these risks. "Xi Jinping's sense of power has only grown over the past year," Small observes. "He can now introduce export restrictions without pushback and feel emboldened to use trade as a weapon pretty openly."
In an unpublished paper for the Centre for Statecraft and National Security at King's College London, Goodman outlines eight tactics deployed by China to weaponize its trading relationship. These include import bans, anti-competition investigations, and strategic uses of export restrictions.
As Starmer embarks on his historic visit to China, it remains to be seen whether he can secure the meaningful trade deals that Labour hopes for. Given the complexities and risks involved, many experts believe the UK's prospects are bleak.
Keir Starmer's highly anticipated visit to China this week has been touted as an effort to revive diplomatic relations and secure new trade deals. However, experts warn that the UK prime minister's chances of landing meaningful agreements are slim.
Eight years after Theresa May's ill-fated "ambitious" post-Brexit deal with China was shelved, Starmer is set to embark on a trip that will focus on joint trade and investment efforts. The visit comes as China continues to assert its dominance in global trade, with the country boasting a record trillion-dollar global trade surplus in 2025.
Despite Starmer's assurances that China presents significant opportunities for British businesses, analysts believe the UK is unlikely to reap substantial economic benefits from its dealings with Beijing. "The bar for a successful Starmer trip is very low," says Sam Goodman, senior policy director at the China Strategic Risks Institute. "It could amount to a bunch of memoranda of understanding on financial services and maybe a promise of a greenfield investment in the car industry."
Goodman's assessment is echoed by Andrew Small, a former European Commission adviser who now works for the European Council on Foreign Relations. "China is unlikely to deliver the economic boost Labour wants because margins have perished in an overheated economy," he notes.
Small also warns that China's trade policies are becoming increasingly complex and unpredictable. The country has shown a willingness to use trade as a tool of foreign policy, imposing import bans and anti-competition investigations on foreign companies. "Foreign businesses are seen as fair game and a useful pressure point for China in its relationship with foreign countries," he says.
One notable example of this is China's recent export ban on Nexperia chips, which nearly brought car production to a halt globally. Goodman notes that such tactics demonstrate the double-edged nature of doing business with China.
As Starmer prepares to meet with Chinese leaders and promote British trade interests, analysts are cautioning that the UK must be aware of these risks. "Xi Jinping's sense of power has only grown over the past year," Small observes. "He can now introduce export restrictions without pushback and feel emboldened to use trade as a weapon pretty openly."
In an unpublished paper for the Centre for Statecraft and National Security at King's College London, Goodman outlines eight tactics deployed by China to weaponize its trading relationship. These include import bans, anti-competition investigations, and strategic uses of export restrictions.
As Starmer embarks on his historic visit to China, it remains to be seen whether he can secure the meaningful trade deals that Labour hopes for. Given the complexities and risks involved, many experts believe the UK's prospects are bleak.
... China is a super complex country to deal with & they're not going to give away all their secrets easily 
. The fact that Xi Jinping is feeling pretty powerful these days isn't helping, you know? He's got this whole "weaponizing trade" thing down pat 
. Starmer needs to be realistic about what the UK can realistically get from China - maybe some nice-to-haves instead of must-haves 
. No need to get your hopes up too high, mate 
.
. And with Xi Jinping on the rise, I'm not sure he's gonna be easy to negotiate with either 
. The UK needs to think twice before getting into a trade deal that could leave them feeling burned 
.
and I'm still buzzing from all the geysers we saw! Have you ever seen Old Faithful erupt in person? It's like nature's own fireworks display 
Anyway, back to trade deals... I don't know about this China thing, but I do know that if they're gonna make some big promises, they'd better deliver on the good stuff, like free Wi-Fi at the airport or something 
. China's got too much power in their hands right now, you feel? They're already crushing everyone with that massive trade surplus 
. I mean, it's not like the UK's gonna come out on top here, sorry guys 
.
. China's always using trade as a tool to get what they want, whether it's from other countries or even their own businesses 
. It's like, you can't trust 'em completely, ya know? 
It's not like we're in a good position here.
. We need some trade deals, but at what cost? 
. I don't know if Starmer is aware of just how much he's taking on, but I hope he's got some good people advising him 
. Still, I guess it's worth a shot? Maybe China will surprise us all and be all like "hey, we're friendly!" 
, but I wouldn't count my chickens just yet 
...
.
China's growing influence in global trade is a game-changer. It'll be interesting to see how Starmer navigates these complex relationships and what benefits he can actually bring back for the UK. Maybe they should focus on their own innovation and tech sector instead of just relying on trade deals with other countries? 
, China is a huge player in global trade now, with a trillion-dollar surplus 
. China's been using trade as a tool for foreign policy, which is super scary 
. The UK needs to be aware of these risks or they might end up getting burned 
Those memoranda of understanding might be nice on paper, but if they're just gonna get watered down or shelved, it's not worth the hype 
. And with Xi Jinping's grip on power getting tighter by the day, it's like he's playing a game of global economic whack-a-mole – you think you've got him cornered, but then he just changes the rules 
.
. starmer needs to be super prepared for that and have some solid negotiating skills, or he's gonna end up with squat 
. They're not exactly known for being flexible or willing to compromise in their dealings with other countries. So, if Keir Starmer is thinking of making some big trade deals with China, he's got his work cut out for him 
. They're not afraid to impose export bans or anti-competition investigations on foreign companies, which is a big risk for anyone trying to do business with them 
.
they're not afraid to use it as a tool for foreign policy 
gotta wonder if labours promises are just empty words 
. I mean, it's all about reviving diplomatic relations and securing new trade deals, but what's really at stake here? The UK's economic future with China? 
It seems to me that Starmer's chances are as bleak as a British summer 
. Eight years ago, they almost landed a deal and now... I don't know, man, it just feels like the odds are against him. He's going in blind, hoping for promises of greenfield investments and whatnot 
. Meanwhile, China is just playing hardball with its trade policies, using them as a tool of foreign policy 
Starmer's trip to China is lookin like a total disaster, fam. The bar is so low for this dude, it's almost laughable. A bunch of memoranda of understanding on financial services? Yawn. That's not exactly what Labour was hopin' for when they sent him over there. And don't even get me started on the trade deals...China's just gonna string 'em along and then pull the rug out from under us. I mean, have you seen China's record trillion-dollar global trade surplus? We're basically beggin for scraps here.
. uk should be more worried about how china's gonna use their "trade" to flex their muscles 
, not just sitting there waiting for a free ride 
. Maybe it's better to focus on building stronger ties with countries like the US or EU instead of chasing after China's favor