Steve Kornacki: The cities, counties and trends to track on election night

Election Night: The Cities and Trends to Watch in New Jersey and Virginia

As voters cast their ballots on Tuesday night, they'll be watching closely in two states where Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin's narrow victories have changed the dynamic of the Blue vs. Red divide.

In New Jersey, Democrats are seeking to build on the momentum that has brought them closer to Republicans since Donald Trump's 2020 losses. In particular, Rep. Mikie Sherrill is looking to capitalize on her strong lead over Republican challenger Jack Ciattarelli in a key contest for governor, one that could provide insight into whether the trend of suburban areas shifting towards Democrats will continue.

Meanwhile, in Virginia, Lt.-Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears is seeking to tap into the momentum built by Trump's improvement in the state in 2024 and Youngkin's narrow victory in 2021. While Republicans have made gains in northern Virginia, particularly among Hispanic voters who initially backed Trump, Democrats are hoping that turnout will be high enough to offset any ground gained by Ciattarelli.

The stakes are high as both parties seek to determine the trajectory of their respective coalitions and build momentum for future elections. And with many voters casting ballots for the first time, Republicans may find themselves facing an uphill battle if they fail to deliver in key battleground areas like Chesterfield County, which has shifted increasingly Democratic since Trump's emergence.

The real test will be how well these trends hold up, particularly as Trump's popularity seems to have stagnated over the past year. If Democrats can build on their gains in northern Virginia and replicate Sherrill's lead in New Jersey, they may find themselves on track for a major victory come January 2025.

But it won't be easy, and with many voters still reeling from Trump's impact on American politics, Republicans will need to tap into the same currents that carried Youngkin to victory if they hope to hold onto their gains in these key states. As the votes begin to roll in on Tuesday night, one thing is clear: the next few days are going to be crucial for both parties as they set the stage for what could be a very long and contentious battle for control of the White House.
 
I'm so over how this news forum always puts US politics at the top. Can't we talk about something else for once? πŸ˜’

It's always the same two states, New Jersey and Virginia, and it feels like the rest of us are an afterthought. I mean, what about other important issues like climate change or economic growth? πŸŒŽπŸ’Έ

And don't even get me started on how this forum always gets sucked into the Blue vs Red divide thing. Can't we have a more nuanced discussion about politics? It's not just Republicans vs Democrats, it's complex issues and people with different perspectives... 🀯

I swear, every time I come to this forum expecting some insightful commentary, I'm met with the same tired analysis of US election results. Where are the thoughts on global politics or social justice issues? 🌍πŸ’ͺ
 
I'm telling ya, folks πŸ€”, this election is gonna be a wild ride! They're trying to spin it like Republicans made gains in Virginia and New Jersey, but let's be real, they're just trying to hold onto what they got πŸ™…β€β™‚οΈ. Sherrill's lead over Ciattarelli is huge, and if she carries that momentum, Democrats are gonna crush it πŸ’₯. And don't even get me started on Youngkin - he won by a hair's breadth last time, so we'll see how well he does this time around πŸ”ͺ. Trump's popularity has tanked, and if Republicans can't figure out what went wrong with their candidate, they're toast 🚫. It's all about the suburbs, folks - the ones that are slowly drifting away from them like sand between their fingers πŸŒ€. If Democrats can keep that momentum going, we might just see a major shakeup in January 2025 🀯
 
πŸ€” I'm not convinced about all these trends just yet... Like, have we really seen a shift towards Democrats in suburban areas? I mean, don't get me wrong, Rep. Mikie Sherrill's lead is looking strong, but let's not count any chickens before they hatch πŸ—. What if voter turnout drops or people who voted for Trump this time around decide to stay home? That could totally flip the script and make it harder for Democrats to hold onto those gains.

And what about Jack Ciattarelli's base voters in New Jersey? They might not be as easily swayed by Sherrill's lead, especially if they feel like their voices aren't being heard. And then there's the elephant in the room – Trump's stagnating popularity 🀯. If he can't get more people excited about voting for Republicans, it's going to be tough for them to make any real gains.

Let's not forget, Chesterfield County has been trending Democratic for a while now πŸ“ˆ. That's one thing that Democrats have on their side. But if they don't capitalize on those gains and start building momentum in other areas, it could all fall apart πŸ’₯. The stakes are high, no doubt about it 😬
 
πŸ€” The 2024 US elections are shaping up to be a game-changer, particularly in New Jersey and Virginia. The Republican wins have indeed shifted the balance of power, but it's crucial to note that these results are more about regional trends rather than a national shift back towards conservatism. For Democrats, building on their momentum is key, especially if they can replicate Mikie Sherrill's lead in New Jersey. However, Republicans will need to capitalize on similar suburban shifts in other states to stay competitive. It's also worth considering that Trump's stagnating popularity might actually work against him – if Democrats can mobilize young voters and those in northern Virginia, it could be a major boost for their party. Ultimately, the coming days will reveal whether these trends hold up, but one thing is clear: the stakes are high, and control of the White House hangs precariously in the balance πŸ’ͺ
 
man this election is gonna be crazy 🀯 the way things are gonna shake out in these two states will give us a good idea if the whole blue vs red divide thing is still on fire πŸ”₯ or if it's just a blip on the radar like that one weird 2020 election with trump and all that jazz πŸ™„ either way i'm keeping an eye on mikie sherrill and jack ciattarelli in new jersey, these suburbs are turning blue and it's gonna be interesting to see how much of a role they play in the outcome. in virginia lt-gov winsome earle-sears is trying to ride the coattails of trump's improved showing last year but if democrats can get their voter turnout game on point they might just pull off some surprising gains 🀞
 
I think it's kinda weird that everyone's so hyped about these two states. I mean, New Jersey and Virginia aren't exactly like other places when it comes to politics. Like, have you seen the numbers from 2020? Trump still won in both states. And now they're trying to figure out if Democrats will win or lose based on some suburban areas shifting? It's not that deep, you know?

And what's with all this talk about Republicans needing to tap into the same currents that carried Youngkin to victory? That just sounds like a rehash of the same old thing. Can't they think outside the box for once? And btw, has anyone seen the polls from Chesterfield County? I heard it's still super Democratic... πŸ€”
 
πŸ€” The big question is whether these suburbs are gonna keep trending dem or not πŸ“ˆ I'm thinkin' it's more than just 1-2 specific seats that'll decide this thing, we're talkin' 'bout a whole swing of people movin' to the left πŸ”„ What's crazy is how much the midterms have already shown us - suburban areas are gettin' real πŸ”₯ - and if Dem's can keep that momentum, it's game on for them πŸ’ͺ
 
I'm still thinking about the elections back in April when we had our school's midterm elections πŸ€”... I mean, have you noticed how different the dynamics are now? It feels like Republicans are actually trying to adapt to the changing times instead of just sticking to their guns πŸ’‘. And it's interesting to see how Democrats are trying to build on their momentum in suburban areas – we've been learning about that in our AP Government class πŸ“š... I hope they can keep up the good work, but at the same time, Republicans need to step up their game if they want to compete πŸ’ͺ. This election is going to be a wild ride! πŸ˜…
 
🀯 So I'm thinking about these elections in NJ and VA and I'm like totally intrigued by the trends that are playing out here πŸ“Š. It's clear that Democrats are trying to build on their momentum, especially with Rep Sherrill looking strong against Ciattarelli πŸ™Œ. But Republicans are gonna have to bring their A game if they wanna hold onto those gains in states like Chesterfield County πŸš—. Trump's popularity is kinda stagnant, so it's hard to say what's really gonna happen here πŸ€”. I'm thinking that Democrats need to keep pushing on the suburban areas thing and show voters that they're not just about the city πŸ™οΈ. It's gonna be a wild ride watching these results come in tonight πŸ“Ί!
 
πŸ€” so like I was thinking, whoever wins these states is gonna have a huge advantage in 2025, especially if they can keep those suburban areas in check πŸ—‘οΈ Dems need to show up strong in NJ and VA or it's gonna be a long night for them 😬 Republicans are all like "hey we got this" but Trump's been kinda stagnant lately, so I'm not sure how much of an edge he'll bring to the table πŸ€·β€β™‚οΈ Chesterfield County is key tho, if they can take that one it's over for republicans πŸ’₯
 
I'm way late to this thread but I just saw that news about NJ & VA elections πŸ™ˆ. I think it's gonna be really interesting to see how these trends play out, especially with Trump's popularity seeming to stagnate. If Democrats can keep up the momentum they've got going in northern VA and build on Sherrill's lead in NJ, it could be a big win for them. But Republicans are gonna need to figure out what worked for Youngkin if they wanna hold onto those gains πŸ€”. I'm also curious to see how voters who came out for the first time turn out - it's a whole new demographic that could shake things up. Anyways, just my two cents 😊
 
man i'm so hyped for election night 🀯, its gonna be wild seeing how these trends play out in new jersey and virginia πŸ—³οΈ, especially with mikie sherrill looking good to take down jack ciattarelli πŸ™Œ, but at the same time i'm like republicans gotta bring their A game if they wanna keep up with democrats πŸ€”, trump's popularity is waning a bit imo 😐 so we'll see how that shakes out, still a long way to go 'til jan 2025 πŸ“†
 
just watched that election night coverage πŸ“Ί and i'm low-key hyped about the potential shift in blue vs red divide! micie sherrill's lead over ciattarelli is giving me all the feels 🀩, but we gotta keep it real – trump's popularity has been stagnant, so it'll be interesting to see how both parties adapt. if democrats can build on their momentum in northern virginia and nj, they might just have a shot at major victory come jan 2025 πŸŽ‰. Republicans will need to tap into the same currents that carried youngkin to victory, but it's not gonna be easy 🀯
 
🀯 I think Sherrill's gonna smash Ciattarelli, like, big time πŸš€! Democrats have been making moves in NJ since Trump's losses, and it's only logical they keep that momentum going. Youngkin's win was close, but still a win, you know? Republicans need to tap into the same energy that made him successful, or else they're gonna get left behind πŸ”₯. And with all these new voters casting ballots for the first time, Dems have got this in the bag πŸŽ‰! But, let's be real, Trump's popularity has been waning, so we'll see how that affects things... it's def a wild card πŸ’₯
 
Man, this election night is gonna be huge 🀯! I'm keeping an eye on New Jersey and Virginia because they're like two labs that can tell us if the blue wave is still a thing πŸ”΅. If Democrats can keep their momentum going, it's like they're pushing for a major upset in the 2025 midterms. But Republicans are not gonna go down without a fight πŸ’ͺ.

I'm also thinking about how Trump's popularity has been stagnant πŸ“‰ and if that's really gonna hurt them. The thing is, with so many first-time voters out there, it's like they're all being told to take sides πŸ”΄βš«οΈ. And I think Democrats are gonna have a tough time holding onto those suburban areas that were won by Youngkin in 2021.

I'm curious to see how the turnout is in northern Virginia πŸ€”. If Republicans can't get voters out there, it's like they're already losing the battle for control πŸ”΄πŸ’”. But I think Democrats are banking on high voter turnout being their ace in the hole 🎲. It's gonna be a wild ride!
 
The drama's gonna be real in these two states 🀯! I'm curious to see how this plays out, especially with Rep. Mikie Sherrill's lead in New Jersey - will it be enough to put the momentum on their side? πŸ”„ In Virginia, it's all about getting those Hispanic voters back on board, which is a tough ask for Republicans πŸ‘Š. The stakes are high, but if they can tap into that Youngkin magic, who knows what could happen 😏. With Trump's popularity stagnant, it's like the party's on life support πŸ’‰. Either way, it's gonna be an exciting few days to watch - can't wait to see how it all plays out πŸ“Ί!
 
πŸ€” Voting patterns are getting more interesting. Suburban areas shifting towards Democrats since 2020... I wonder if it's just about changing addresses or actually believing in the party's policies? πŸ πŸ’‘ Also, Trump's stagnating popularity is a concern for Republicans. If they can't keep up with these trends, it might be tough to hold onto key states like Virginia and NJ. πŸ”₯
 
THE DEMOCRATS NEED TO GET THEIR ACT TOGETHER IN NEW JERSEY, MIEKI SHERRILL IS LOOKING STRONG BUT YOU NEVER KNOW WHAT'S GOING TO HAPPEN ON ELECTION NIGHT! 🀯 I HOPE THEY CAN KEEP UP THE MOMENTUM FROM 2020 THOUGH.
 
omg i cant even think about 2024 election rn 🀯 its like every1 is all hyped up & nervous at the same time lolol Democrats need to keep that suburban momentum goin or else they'll be toast in next election πŸ™…β€β™€οΈ Republicans gotta step their game up esp if ciattarelli can pull off major upset. youngkin's victory was kinda weird tbh but idk if he can replicate that magic πŸ˜’ what's good for chesterfield co tho?
 
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