A referendum on a united Ireland could be a recipe for disaster, with the two sides of the border facing a perfect storm of uncertainty and division. The experience of Brexit has left both governments woefully unprepared for another major constitutional change, warns a team of experts who have analyzed the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK.
The warning comes as tensions remain high over the prospect of a referendum on Irish unification, with nationalists arguing that it is now imminent and unionists playing down the prospect. The Northern Ireland secretary of state is under pressure to call a referendum, but both governments seem reluctant to take the issue seriously.
Analysts warn that if history repeats itself, we could see another divisive and chaotic period on our hands. "The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned," says Fintan O'Toole, author and Irish Times columnist. "We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out." This time around, the stakes are even higher, with potential winners and losers on both sides of the divide.
The debate has been hampered by empty rhetoric and a lack of serious discussion about the implications of unification. "People tend to be for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened," says Sam McBride, Northern Ireland editor of the Belfast Telegraph.
The two experts have written a book that aims to inform and provoke discussion on the issue, presenting both sides of the argument in an impartial manner. Their goal is to encourage debate, not just echo chambers, but so far, it seems like the conversation has been missing that crucial element.
A referendum in Northern Ireland would trigger one in the Republic, where voters say they favor unification but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag. The Irish government needs to work out what its offer is beyond just saying "we want a united Ireland and we love you". It's time for politicians to join the debate, not just avoid it.
The situation could spiral out of control at any moment, warns O'Toole. "You could have just a mad or bad or feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'" But there is also hope that by engaging with each other's arguments, both sides can learn from each other and find common ground.
Ultimately, the question is what kind of state would be created in a united Ireland? Is it a unitary or federal state? The answers to these questions will determine the course of history.
The warning comes as tensions remain high over the prospect of a referendum on Irish unification, with nationalists arguing that it is now imminent and unionists playing down the prospect. The Northern Ireland secretary of state is under pressure to call a referendum, but both governments seem reluctant to take the issue seriously.
Analysts warn that if history repeats itself, we could see another divisive and chaotic period on our hands. "The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned," says Fintan O'Toole, author and Irish Times columnist. "We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out." This time around, the stakes are even higher, with potential winners and losers on both sides of the divide.
The debate has been hampered by empty rhetoric and a lack of serious discussion about the implications of unification. "People tend to be for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened," says Sam McBride, Northern Ireland editor of the Belfast Telegraph.
The two experts have written a book that aims to inform and provoke discussion on the issue, presenting both sides of the argument in an impartial manner. Their goal is to encourage debate, not just echo chambers, but so far, it seems like the conversation has been missing that crucial element.
A referendum in Northern Ireland would trigger one in the Republic, where voters say they favor unification but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag. The Irish government needs to work out what its offer is beyond just saying "we want a united Ireland and we love you". It's time for politicians to join the debate, not just avoid it.
The situation could spiral out of control at any moment, warns O'Toole. "You could have just a mad or bad or feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'" But there is also hope that by engaging with each other's arguments, both sides can learn from each other and find common ground.
Ultimately, the question is what kind of state would be created in a united Ireland? Is it a unitary or federal state? The answers to these questions will determine the course of history.
I mean, Brexit was a huge mess and if there's another major constitutional change, we're looking at another disaster waiting to happen 
. Both sides are so caught up in their own agendas that it's hard to have any real discussion about what could go down. And don't even get me started on the politicians - they need to step up and start having a serious conversation instead of just avoiding the issue 
. The stakes are so high, I'm literally worried about what could happen if things spiral out of control 
.
This whole thing feels like a ticking time bomb waiting to go off... both sides are so entrenched and scared of change, it's like they're stuck in quicksand. What's the point of even having experts warn about this if no one is listening? 
The Irish government needs to put its money where its mouth is and come up with some real solutions, not just vague promises. And what's with the politicians avoiding the conversation altogether? It's like they're trying to pretend it doesn't exist... 
. I'm not sure how much more of the same old rhetoric we can take before things get out of hand 
. We need politicians who are willing to join the debate and actually work on some solutions, not just use it as a way to score points with their base 
.
. I mean, what's the offer from Dublin? Just 'we want you' 
... yeah right, that's not gonna cut it 
. And don't even get me started on the unionists 
, they're just playing dumb 
, and we're all just waiting for someone to press the button 
.
... people need to start having real conversations 
"We want a united Ireland" 
... that's cute 
, but what does it mean in practice? We need some substance here 
.
. But at the same time, there's hope that people can come together and find common ground 
... that's what it's all about, right? 
I'm getting really worried about the prospect of a referendum on a unified Ireland. It's like they're setting up a recipe for disaster without even considering the consequences 
. Both sides are so caught up in their own divisions that it's hard to imagine them having a serious discussion about what kind of state would be created 
The experts are right, history isn't repeating itself, but the experience of Brexit is definitely giving us some valuable lessons 
. We need politicians who can join the debate and not just avoid it 
.
And what about the logistics of a united Ireland? Do we even know how that would work? 
This situation is ticking time bomb and I hope people start having serious conversations about it soon 
, and it's like, can't they just talk to each other already? 
. But if it comes down to just politicians playing it safe, we're doomed for more division and uncertainty 
I just can't help but feel so worried about this situation... if Northern Ireland leaves the UK it's going to cause so much chaos and uncertainty for everyone involved... the thought of people being forced into a decision without knowing all the implications is just heartbreaking 
. It seems like both sides are stuck in their own bubbles, refusing to listen to each other and that's exactly what's needed - open and honest dialogue 
. And can we please get some real discussion going instead of just rehashing the same old 'it's a yes or no vote' nonsense? We need to talk about what kind of state would actually exist in a united Ireland, not just pretend like it's gonna be a walk in the park 
.
. It's time for some serious leadership and a clear plan of action, not just empty words and half-baked ideas 
Can't believe how clueless ppl r on both sides rn. Brexit was a disaster but we cant just ignore the issues 2nd time around. Need politicians 2 take this serious & have real discussions about what a united Ireland would entail. Unitary or federal, its not that hard 2 figure out! 
.
But seriously, let's not forget that there are ppl on both sides who genuinely want peace & prosperity for all