Are We Misreading The Oil Demand Shock From Hormuz? The conventional wisdom on the US and Israeli strikes against Iran suggests that a short war would soon give way to a return to pre war oil prices.
However, mainstream energy forecasters, including those at the International Energy Agency (IEA), have projected a contraction in global oil demand in 2023 before it flips back to growth in the fourth quarter of that year.
But what if this narrative is being rewritten as we speak? The prolonged conflict has resulted in a significant reduction in global oil production, with prices failing to come down despite initial expectations.