Russia's Soyuz 5, a medium-lift rocket designed to tackle the growing demand for satellite launches in the post-Ukraine invasion era, is finally ready to take to the skies. The question now is whether anyone will be willing to strap themselves to this behemoth and blast off into orbit.
The Soyuz 5 is essentially a conventional response to Western commercial boosters like SpaceX's Falcon 9, which have dominated the medium-lift market in recent years. Its development dates back almost a decade, with the goal of creating a more efficient, price-competitive alternative that can rival the likes of Proton and Angara rockets.
Russia's plan is for the Soyuz 5 to become the "boost" stage of a super-heavy lift rocket called Yenisei, which aims to launch humans on a lunar mission. But so far, the Yenisei project has been stuck in limbo, and its fate remains uncertain.
Meanwhile, the Soyuz 2 rocket already in service has about half the capacity of the Soyuz 5, but it's still a viable option for crew and cargo missions to the International Space Station, as well as smaller spacecraft launches. And then there are Russia's Angara rockets, which have been online since the last decade.
The question is what demand is there for a rocket with 18 tons of capacity to low-Earth orbit? The answer isn't straightforward. On one hand, geostationary satellites – once the bread and butter of Proton launches – have seen their numbers dwindle dramatically in recent years. And then there's the fact that Russia's invasion of Ukraine has made its rockets unappealing to Western satellite operators.
On the other hand, international competition in the medium-lift market is fierce. China has an expanding portfolio of launch options, and India's offerings are growing as well. And when it comes to price, reusable boosters like SpaceX's Falcon 9 are hard to beat.
Ultimately, Russia will need to convince Western satellite operators that its Soyuz 5 rocket is the right choice for their needs – or at least offers a compelling alternative. As it stands, the market for medium-lift rockets remains a crowded and competitive space.
The Soyuz 5 is essentially a conventional response to Western commercial boosters like SpaceX's Falcon 9, which have dominated the medium-lift market in recent years. Its development dates back almost a decade, with the goal of creating a more efficient, price-competitive alternative that can rival the likes of Proton and Angara rockets.
Russia's plan is for the Soyuz 5 to become the "boost" stage of a super-heavy lift rocket called Yenisei, which aims to launch humans on a lunar mission. But so far, the Yenisei project has been stuck in limbo, and its fate remains uncertain.
Meanwhile, the Soyuz 2 rocket already in service has about half the capacity of the Soyuz 5, but it's still a viable option for crew and cargo missions to the International Space Station, as well as smaller spacecraft launches. And then there are Russia's Angara rockets, which have been online since the last decade.
The question is what demand is there for a rocket with 18 tons of capacity to low-Earth orbit? The answer isn't straightforward. On one hand, geostationary satellites – once the bread and butter of Proton launches – have seen their numbers dwindle dramatically in recent years. And then there's the fact that Russia's invasion of Ukraine has made its rockets unappealing to Western satellite operators.
On the other hand, international competition in the medium-lift market is fierce. China has an expanding portfolio of launch options, and India's offerings are growing as well. And when it comes to price, reusable boosters like SpaceX's Falcon 9 are hard to beat.
Ultimately, Russia will need to convince Western satellite operators that its Soyuz 5 rocket is the right choice for their needs – or at least offers a compelling alternative. As it stands, the market for medium-lift rockets remains a crowded and competitive space.