Pennsylvania Plays Crucial Role in Determining Congressional Control, Four Key Seats to Watch
The 2026 US midterm elections may prove pivotal in shaping the balance of power in Congress, with four Pennsylvania congressional seats expected to be highly competitive. The state has a history of being a swing state, and all 19 congressional districts will be up for grabs.
According to pollster Berwood Yost of Franklin & Marshall College, each of these districts is within striking distance, indicating that both parties are keenly aware of their significance. "There aren't a lot of competitive districts across the United States," he noted, "and so both parties want to retain those districts."
Three of the four key seats currently held by Republicans - Fitzpatrick, Mackenzie, and Bresnahan - have garnered attention due to their vulnerability. Yost pointed out that their Democratic challengers are likely to capitalize on voters' growing discontent with health care costs and other economic issues.
The 1st Congressional District in Bucks County has been a target for Democrats looking to flip seats, but incumbent Brian Fitzpatrick's moderate record has helped him retain the seat in previous elections. A slew of Democrats have filed to challenge him, including Bucks County Commission Chair Bob Harvie, who has gained Shapiro's backing.
Meanwhile, the 7th Congressional District in the Lehigh Valley is a perennial swing seat, with Ryan Mackenzie holding onto it by just over 4,000 votes. Despite internal divisions within the Democratic Party, six candidates have filed to challenge him, including former federal prosecutor Ryan Crosswell and Scranton Mayor Paige Cognetti.
The 8th Congressional District, representing Scranton, has seen Rob Bresnahan's stock trading come under scrutiny, with some accusing him of using his position for personal gain. Despite this, he remains in office, but faces a strong challenge from former Pennsylvania Democratic Rep. Matt Cartwright and Scranton Mayor Paige Cognetti.
Lastly, the 10th Congressional District is another toss-up, with incumbent Scott Perry facing challenges from Karen Dalton, Josh Hall, and others. The seat was won by just over 5,000 votes in 2024, setting up a potentially contentious general election.
Ultimately, Yost noted that the right candidate can make all the difference in these competitive primaries, which will ultimately decide control of Congress in 2026. As voters seek to hold politicians accountable for their actions, it remains to be seen how they will respond to the challenges facing Bresnahan, Mackenzie, Fitzpatrick, and Perry.
The 2026 US midterm elections may prove pivotal in shaping the balance of power in Congress, with four Pennsylvania congressional seats expected to be highly competitive. The state has a history of being a swing state, and all 19 congressional districts will be up for grabs.
According to pollster Berwood Yost of Franklin & Marshall College, each of these districts is within striking distance, indicating that both parties are keenly aware of their significance. "There aren't a lot of competitive districts across the United States," he noted, "and so both parties want to retain those districts."
Three of the four key seats currently held by Republicans - Fitzpatrick, Mackenzie, and Bresnahan - have garnered attention due to their vulnerability. Yost pointed out that their Democratic challengers are likely to capitalize on voters' growing discontent with health care costs and other economic issues.
The 1st Congressional District in Bucks County has been a target for Democrats looking to flip seats, but incumbent Brian Fitzpatrick's moderate record has helped him retain the seat in previous elections. A slew of Democrats have filed to challenge him, including Bucks County Commission Chair Bob Harvie, who has gained Shapiro's backing.
Meanwhile, the 7th Congressional District in the Lehigh Valley is a perennial swing seat, with Ryan Mackenzie holding onto it by just over 4,000 votes. Despite internal divisions within the Democratic Party, six candidates have filed to challenge him, including former federal prosecutor Ryan Crosswell and Scranton Mayor Paige Cognetti.
The 8th Congressional District, representing Scranton, has seen Rob Bresnahan's stock trading come under scrutiny, with some accusing him of using his position for personal gain. Despite this, he remains in office, but faces a strong challenge from former Pennsylvania Democratic Rep. Matt Cartwright and Scranton Mayor Paige Cognetti.
Lastly, the 10th Congressional District is another toss-up, with incumbent Scott Perry facing challenges from Karen Dalton, Josh Hall, and others. The seat was won by just over 5,000 votes in 2024, setting up a potentially contentious general election.
Ultimately, Yost noted that the right candidate can make all the difference in these competitive primaries, which will ultimately decide control of Congress in 2026. As voters seek to hold politicians accountable for their actions, it remains to be seen how they will respond to the challenges facing Bresnahan, Mackenzie, Fitzpatrick, and Perry.